www.mountainviewcellphones.com 3/22/2009
Android is hot. Not only is it being requested by name, customers are seeking out the product. Value oriented customers know that Sprint offers the best deal for Android solutions. Starting at $69.99/month, you can get unlimited talk, text, and data. Call us if you want a better deal than this, we can ship across the country. Talking is unlimited to mobile phones, but that’s how people talk these days so no big woop about landline minutes.
As for the strategic balance for the smartphone market, Android is killing all other competitors. Market share growth is zooming, Iphone is stalling, and all the carriers and manufacturers are putting out Android handsets. My prediction is that there will be a Blackberry Android handset coming in next year or thereafter…it’s inevitable.
You may ask what facts I’m basing this on.
1. Store traffic data indicates a clear change away from Blackberry and WebOS to Android. Windows doesn’t even get mentioned anymore.
2. All the carriers now have an Android phone. Each carrier has more than 1 form factor, one with keyboard and one without. This is definitely a challenge to the IPhone in two ways. Better form factors make a larger market of buyers. Secondly, better distribution and the combined promotion of all carriers against Apple. Sprint, Verizon, ATT, and T-Mobile all carry Android.
3. The tipping point, when Android really takes off is when Sprint gets ”Supersonic.” This will be the unchallenged 4G device. This will lead to breakthru experience in speed and usability of phone applications. I’m certain the screen, form factor, and other things will come along as well. The only worry is battery life for me, but performance will definitely be there. 1 Ghz processor (yes this is now a Netbook) with 4g wireless networks.
4. Developers structurally will prefer Android. First, it starts with Java which is a very common web language and has a large base of developers that can code in this language. 2nd, with IPhone, you need to line up the stars to get in the App Store. For a young innovative software company, you need to get the product right, the marketing right, the Apple relationship right, the approval right, the testing right, etc…before you are let onto the App Store. The good news is that App Store products generally are high quality and work. However, for breakthru game changing applications, the App Store is not the easiest way to get to market. Android code it, test it, market it, is much easier. There is no Apple gatekeeper you need to please, just the consumer. This allows applications to be more iterative in design and adapt faster to market needs. You can fail 2 or 3 times on Android without spending the resources of 1 App Store application. If you can learn fast enough from those failures, you can have a better app that’s test in Android and then shine it up for Apple approval “afterwards.” This will slowly but surely make the IPhone the 2nd launch market versus Android. Bank of America even released their mobile Android banking app already after the IPhone app. In 2 years, Android will be the first release and IPhone the second.
5. Developers will have a larger market to get their apps on. As Android will hopefully solve the problem of write once and run on any Android phone, this will make the market much easier to accept applications. The application will run on 9-10 devices rather than 1 form factor.
6. Google’s information business model will continue to promote giving away of hardware, software, and other items to recoup the costs in managing and marketing information and use of the device. Android is free…so to speak…and this makes it attractive for hardware vendors to use (Look at HTC, Samsung, and LG firmly committing to Android next year). Samsung and LG are the big boys in the cellular market and they have the muscle to push the product across all GSM and CDMA rapidly.
7. IPhone fatigue. The IPhone has been the “in” thing for the last 3 years. People are tired of it. People are going to want to be “different.” Android is the new “cool” thing. Sure there are still tons of IPhones selling but it’s not gaining market share anymore. People are of course tired of ATT and their bottom of the barrel customer service. Your Mom has an IPhone now…as the young generation…you want something better and newer than she has. IPhone users will begin to switch to Android as well for price point and performance parity, as you will get more bang for the buck with Android ($100-$200 less per year). With 4G on Sprint, you will get much more performance for less price.
These are my observations. The rise of Android has already begun and it’s only gaining speed. Apple’s lawsuit of HTC was the sign that they fear the competition.
